Quarterly intelligence brief tracking the global pipeline of distressed commercial real estate — maturing loans, CMBS delinquency rates, forced sales, and workout transactions. Sourced from FDIC regulatory data, MBA delinquency surveys, MSCI Real Assets, and verified court filings.
$957B
CRE Loans Matured 2025
11.71%
Office CMBS Delinquency Q1 2026
$1.26T
Peak Maturity Wall — 2027
50
US Lenders Mapped Quarterly
◆ Data PreviewThe charts and tables below are a live data preview from our Q2 2026 brief. Subscribers receive the full dataset including named lender exposure, individual loan tracking, and city-level forced sale pipeline.
Preview — CMBS Delinquency Rates
Delinquency by Asset Class Q1 2026
CMBS delinquency rates by asset class as of Q1 2026. Office remains the most distressed sector at 11.71% — approaching peak delinquency estimated at 12–13% by year-end 2026. Overall CMBS delinquency: 7.14%.
Office
11.71%
▲ +51bps · Peak est. 12–13%
Driven by non-performing matured balloons. NYC — Worldwide Plaza and One New York Plaza among largest newly delinquent loans in Q1 2026.
Lodging / Hospitality
7.31%
▲ +137bps — Largest monthly jump
First reading above 7% since April 2025 peak of 7.85%. Resort and extended-stay assets driving new delinquencies across Sun Belt and coastal markets.
Retail
6.62%
▲ +32bps — Recovering from Feb low
Rising from February low of 6.30%. Below higher 2024 readings when the rate averaged 6.71%. Regional mall and power centre exposure dominant.
Multifamily
3.20%
▲ From Dec 2024 low of 0.29%
Rose from 0.29% in December 2024 to 0.80% by December 2025. Sun Belt oversupply driving delinquencies in Atlanta, Austin, and Phoenix.
Industrial
1.20%
▼ Stabilising — lowest sector
Industrial remains the most resilient CMBS sector. Logistics and last-mile assets performing well. Cold chain near zero delinquency.
Troview Intelligence analysis of CMBS delinquency data · Q1 2026 · Overall CMBS: 7.14% · Seriously delinquent (60+ days): 6.89% · Bank CRE delinquency rate: 1.53% (Q4 2025)
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate
Quarterly 2023–Q1 2026 · Percent of Balance Delinquent
USD Billion · 2024–2028 · Peak in 2027 at USD 1.26 Trillion
Troview Intelligence · Loan origination and extension data · 2025: USD 957B (~3× historical average)
Preview — Office Distress by City
US Office Vacancy & CMBS Loan Exposure — Major Markets
Office vacancy, year-on-year movement, asking rent, and CMBS distressed loan exposure by major US market. Data as of Q1 2026. Subscribers receive named lender, individual loan, and forced sale pipeline data per city.
City / Market
Vacancy Rate
YoY Change
Avg Asking Rent
CMBS Exposure
Risk Signal
Key Driver
Seattle
25.2%
▲ +190bps
$38/sqft
$6.8B
High
Highest West Coast vacancy; Big Tech footprint reduction
San Francisco
23.3%
▼ −370bps
$62/sqft
$11.4B
Elevated
Improving but high base; tech hybrid work persistence
Dallas / Fort Worth
21.4%
▲ +80bps
$29/sqft
$7.1B
Elevated
High new supply delivery; suburban absorption slowing
Washington DC
20.8%
▲ +60bps
$38/sqft
$9.4B
Elevated
Federal footprint reduction; DOGE impact on leasing
Chicago
19.8%
▲ +10bps
$31/sqft
$8.2B
Elevated
Near-zero YoY change; large Class B vacancy
Boston
17.2%
▼ −140bps
$54/sqft
$4.9B
Moderate
Life sciences anchor; largest US office pipeline; improving
New York (Manhattan)
13.6%
▼ −300bps
$67/sqft
$39.8B
Elevated
Largest absolute exposure; 149 distressed loans identified
Strongest US recovery; JPMorgan, Citadel HQ relocations
Phoenix
16.3%
▲ +120bps
$27/sqft
$3.8B
Moderate
New supply outpacing absorption; mid-market demand steady
Troview Intelligence analysis · Q1 2026 · National office vacancy: 17.6% (April 2026) · 91% of markets tightening YoY · National avg asking rent: $32.91/sqft
Preview — Loan Maturity Wall
CRE Loan Maturities 2024 to 2028
The CRE loan maturity schedule through 2028. 2025 volume of USD 957 Billion represents nearly triple the 20-year historical average, elevated by extensions of 2023–2024 maturities. The wall peaks in 2027 at USD 1.26 Trillion. Subscribers receive lender-level breakdown and city-by-city forced sale pipeline.
2024
2025
2026
2027 — PEAK
2028
$950B
Actual
$957B
~3× Historical Avg
$1.05T
Extensions Feeding In
$1.26T
Peak Maturity Year
$980B
Projected
Market
CMBS Exposure
Office Share Est.
Extension Rate
Distress Outlook
New York City
$39.8B
~48%
~30%
High — 149 distressed loans identified
Los Angeles
$17.9B
~38%
~28%
Elevated — stabilising vacancy aids outlook
Miami
$12.6B
~32%
~22%
Moderate — strong demand absorption
San Francisco
$11.4B
~55%
~35%
Elevated — high office share; vacancy improving
Washington DC
$9.4B
~52%
~31%
High — federal footprint reduction risk
Chicago
$8.2B
~44%
~29%
Elevated — Class B obsolescence accelerating
Dallas / Fort Worth
$7.1B
~36%
~24%
Moderate — near-term supply delivery risk
Seattle
$6.8B
~50%
~33%
High — highest vacancy rate in Western US
Troview Intelligence · CMBS exposure data from verified public filings · Q1 2026 · Subscriber edition includes named lender breakdown and individual loan tracking
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